Hull City have done their best to throw automatic promotion away with two defeats on the spin, including a 2-0 reverse at struggling Barnsley last week. Boss Steve Bruce admitted his players looked nervous and on paper you couldn't get a tougher game than against Champions Cardiff City.
The good news though for Tigers fans is that since gaining the title, Cardiff have drawn three matches. But assuming Watford can beat a Leeds side already on the beach, Hull will have to win to go up.
The impetus is with Watford who have won back-to-back games after seemingly blowing their chnaces with defeats by Peterboro' and Millwall - both near the foot of the table.
Watford thrashed Leeds 6-1 in November and have nothing to fear. Whilst Hull are in the box seat Watford fans will have high hopes. These are shared by top betting expert, Joe Ross, from www.footyinsider.co.uk
'Form goes out the window in these games and it is a case of who can hold their nerve. he way Hull capitulated at Barnsley last week suggested they have faltered mentally and we can see them failing to win.
'In contrast Watford have an edge over Leeds having demolished them in spectacular fashion back in November. I can't see them losing and Leeds odds of 15/2 reflect that view amongst the bookies. Hull are Even moey at home to Cardiff and that reflects the relative chances.'
The chase for the play-off spots is also fascinating with Nottingham Forest and Leicester trying to barge their way in ahead of Palace and Bolton. Brighton are aleady guaranteed a play off spot and that's good news for Wolves who need to win at the Amex Arena to have any chance of avoiding back-to-back relegations.
Forest have faltered after a superb run of seven wins in eight shot them up the table. They face rivals Leicester at the City ground. One of them has to win and hope Bolton or Palace don't.
Joe Ross again:
'Bolton have home advantage and can beat Blackpool, Palace look the most likley to falter as Peterboro are fighting for their lives and have to win to definately stay up.
'We can see that happening, and Forest nicking the last place by beating their East Midlands rivals in front of a full house.'
It's two from six at the foot of the table and the key game is Huddesfield against Barnsley. If the later win and so do Peterboro' Millwall, and Sheffield will all be in the mess.
Decisive final-day fixtures
Bolton v Blackpool
Brighton v Wolves
Crystal Palace v Peterborough
Derby v Millwall
Huddersfield v Barnsley
Hull v Cardiff
Nott'm Forest v Leicester
Sheffield Wednesday v Middlesbrough
Watford v Leeds